The
rally of the market currently has some wondering if a correction is in our near
future and if it is, are investors ready? According to Alan Valdes they
are. Valdes, the director of floor operations at DME
Securities stated, "The Fed's pumping $85 billion a month into the market
so there's no way for it to go down, but everyone's got their finger on the
trigger because they don't know when this is going to turn." (CNBC) As you can see in the chart to the right, the DOW
has reached all time highs, breaking 2007 records. In the past, whenever all
three indexes have been on an upswing and excelled past their one-year peak line
there has been a slight correction. Investors
recognize this and understand the correlation between market highs and the
necessity of a pullback therefore leaving them waiting for the inevitable.
Nouriel Roubini, the economist who called the crisis in 2006, expects
the market to slow down in the second half of 2013. “I think that the market is
going to be surprised by how much the U.S. is going to slow down, even compared
to last year,” Roubini said, indicating the market could correct “somehow” and
lead investors to be disappointed. (Market
Watch Blog) Contrary to Roubini, Kenny Polcari, floor director of XYZ, believes
there will be a 5 or 6 percent pullback. However, the pullback will be met with
real demands, suggesting 2013 will still end high.
It is difficult to project what the market will do in the future and is
best left to the professionals, however, here is my prediction: there will be a
correction within the next three months around 4 to 6 percent and it will be
the most rapid correction in history. The previous
shortest correction lasted only 15 trading days in July of 1950.
If you are an investor, my advice is to listen to a reputable
investor’s wise words. Warren Buffet stated "Be fearful when others are
greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
No comments:
Post a Comment